The Future of Search: Social Relevancy Rank

FriendFeed has recently launched a search feature, and so Facebook search must be coming soon.

Real-time Web search (of streams of activities) is a hot topic right now. Everyone, including Google and Microsoft, recognizes the value of using trusted contacts as filters. What was once called social search is now called real-time search, but this time it will really happen. First, it will be applied to streams and then to the Web in general.

What we are about to get is a Social Relevancy Rank. Whenever you search streams of activity, the results will be ordered not chronologically but by how relevant each is to you based on your social graph. That is, people who matter more to you will bubble up. How does this work? Well, there will be a formula, just as there is a formula for Page Rank.

Solution 101: Rank by Friends and People You Follow

Here is an idea so obvious that it is surprising Twitter has not implemented it already: front-load search results with people you follow. When you search for, say, "Wilco" on Twitter today, the results are in the chronological order. That is not really relevant because you do not know who most of these people are. But if instead you could see people you follow, the search results would be much more useful.

This is not possible on Twitter today, but it already works great on FriendFeed. There, results are filtered or ranked based your social graph. This is not difficult for FriendFeed to do because, on the one hand, it knows who you care about and, on the other, it applies its advanced feed search technology to your social graph:

This sounds awesome, but there is a problem. "Wilco" works well as a query because the band has just released a new album, but many other queries would return no results. Simply put, your friends on Facebook and people you follow on Twitter can't possibly have an opinion on every topic you may be interested in. This is a problem of sparse data: trusted opinions are scarce.

Small Worlds and Taste Neighbors

To solve the problem of sparse data, we need more data... obviously. One possible solution is to incorporate other sources that you trust (i.e. broaden your social graph). As a next step, search results could rank people you may not be directly following but who are being followed by people you follow. Or in Facebook-speak, friends of friends. You could argue that you are not familiar with their opinions and so cannot yet trust them, but given the small world phenomenon, their contributions are often just as valuable.

Another step could be to include people with similar tastes, so-called taste neighbors. This approach is common among vertical social networks such as Last.fm, Flixster, and Goodreads. These networks have ideas about which people, other than your friends, are like you. However, this is a costly calculation and takes time. In order for Twitter to do something like this, it would have to compare people based on links or perform semantic analyses of tweets over time. Yet even though this is a difficult problem, it will be solved in time.

The Influencers and the Crowd

Aside from using the "second degree" of your social graph or taste neighbors, a Social Relevancy Rank could front-load influencers. In the absence of any other metric, someone who is followed by hundreds of thousands of users is likely more relevant to you than someone you don't know at all. Using number of followers as a weight might be a good way to order the rest of the activity stream.

In general, combing through countless tweets from strangers is not terribly useful anyway. Just as people have stopped looking at anything beyond the first page of results on Google, sifting through pages of tweets in chronological order gets tedious quickly. What needs to be incorporated into the Social Relevancy Rank is the aggregate sentiment of the crowd: a score that tells you yay or nay and gives you an opportunity to drill into more results if you choose.

The Quest for the Perfect Filter

There is no such thing as a perfect formula. Even Page Rank isn't perfect. Yet we all use it and find it useful. Much as Page Rank has been adapted and tuned to search the web, Social Relevancy Rank will evolve over time to help us make sense of endless streams of activity. This ranking will have a profound impact on how we tap into our friends' opinions.

It will change the face of general Web searches in time, too. Today, results are automatically ranked by relevancy and freshness. Once Social Relevancy Rank is factored in, search results will be re-ordered based on social relevancy.

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Source:

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/future_of_search_social_relevancy_rank.php

Tags:

FriendFeed search feature, Facebook search, real-time Web search, Google, Twitter, Twitter search, PageRank, Microsoft, trusted contacts as filters, social search, Global IT News, Social Relevancy Rank, metrics,

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Ballmer: All Traditional Content Will Be Digital In 10 Years

Steve Ballmer said Wednesday that the global advertising economy has been permanently “reset” at a lower level, warning that media companies should not plan for revenues to bounce back to pre-recession levels.

Speaking at the Cannes Lions International Advertising Festival, Ballmer argued that traditional broadcast and print media would have to plan business models around a smaller share of the advertising market, as revenues continue to move to digital outlets. “I don’t think we are in a recession, I think we have reset,” he said. “A recession implies recovery [to pre-recession levels] and for planning purposes I don’t think we will. We have reset and won’t rebound and re-grow.”

Ballmer, named media person of the year at this year’s festival, also painted a bleak picture for the future of traditional media, arguing that newspaper publishers have failed to generate new revenues from the digital opportunity. He said that within 10 years all traditional content will be digital and yet, Google (NSDQ: GOOG) aside, publishers are failing to generate serious digital revenues.

“All content consumed will be digital, we can [only] debate if that may be in one, two, five or 10 years,” added Ballmer. “There won’t be [only traditional] newspapers, magazines and TV programmes. There won’t be [only] personal, social communications offline and separate. In 10 years it will all be online. Static content won’t cut it in the future,” he added.

“Some say that the ad-funded model has not led to profitability. Google’s search site makes money but past Google is there a publisher with an ad-funded or fee-based model that has made lots of money? No.”

For media businesses to successfully evolve they must provide the right combination of context and relevance to make a compelling online proposition for consumers, according to Ballmer. “There are problems with digital advertising. Start with content and the website environment and [ask] is it suitable for advertising. [That] question is somewhat in the balance as we move forward,” he said. The old approach of simply trying to replicate a print newspaper online is doomed to fail, Ballmer added.

During a question and answer session after his speech, Ballmer was also asked about Microsoft’s interest in acquiring Yahoo.“We have no interest in acquiring Yahoo (NSDQ: YHOO). What we have said is that we will continue to remain open to a partnership with Yahoo,” he responded.

Source: http://paidcontent.org/article/419-microsofts-ballmer-all-traditional-content-will-be-digital-in-10-years

Tags: Steve Ballmer, Microsoft, Technology Prediction, Digital content, Analog content, google, Yahoo, Cannes Lions International Advertising Festival, Ad-funded model, Global Best Practice, Print media,

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Yahoo CEO: Stop Comparing Us To Google

Yahoo Chief Executive Carol Bartz asked shareholders to stop comparing the Sunnyvale Internet company to Google, its biggest rival, at a sparsely attended and subdued annual meeting Thursday morning.

The meeting marked a break from the past, when shareholders have repeatedly voiced their disappointment with Yahoo's management and its failure to respond to competitive threats and increase the value of the company's shares. Last year, shareholders withheld support from the board of directors in record numbers after the company rejected a bid from Microsoft to buy Yahoo for $47.5 billion or $33 a share.

"I was hoping that the Microsoft deal would go through, not because I'm a big Microsoft fan but because I don't think the share price will get that high again," said Richard Hackenbery, who became a Yahoo shareholder in 1999. Hackenbery and his wife, Marilyn, drove from Berkeley to the meeting, which was held at the Santa Clara Marriott, to hear Bartz, who became CEO in January, replacing co-founder Jerry Yang.

Yahoo's shares traded at $15.53 on Thursday, up 8 cents and up from a low of $8.94 in November last year. At the meeting, Bartz said if and when there is a deal with Microsoft, they would announce it; otherwise, she had "nothing to say." Yang, who sits on the board of directors and holds the title Chief Yahoo, attended the meeting but did not address it. He later chatted informally with shareholders. David Filo, the other co-founder, did not attend.

Directly addressing shareholders for the first time, Bartz said they should think of Yahoo as the largest online media company, "the place where millions of people come to check what is important to them every day and organize their lives." She also described how she was streamlining Yahoo's organizational structure and shutting down poorly performing properties, which she described as "space debris."

When asked why Yahoo continues to lag Google in financial performance and employee productivity, Bartz said it was time to stop comparing the companies to each other because they have different business models. "Please, this direct comparison model to Google is not fair and is frankly not relevant," she said.

While Google is purely a search-advertising company, search is only part of Yahoo's business, she explained. Bartz also said that Yahoo did not have a "vision problem" but that it had an "execution problem," which it was working hard to fix.

"I was very impressed with her," said Marilyn Neuterman, a retiree living in San Jose. "She gave good, clear answers and conducted a nice meeting." In formal business at the meeting, shareholders re-elected the board of directors and followed the company's recommendation on four additional proposals, including three that dealt with appointing an accounting firm, the stock plan and employee stock options. Shareholders vetoed a fourth proposal that would have given them a say on executive pay.

Source: http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_12688924?source=email

Tags: Yahoo, Google, Carol Bartz, Jerry Yang, David Filo, Microsoft, Santa Clara Marriot, Global IT News, Shareholders, AGM, Annual General Meeting, Search, Chief Yahoo, Executive Pay, Online media,

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Google’s Schmidt Rips Microsoft’s Bing

Earlier today, Google (NSDQ: GOOG) CFO Patrick Pichette said the company was still analyzing Microsoft’s search-engine revamp—and wasn’t ready to comment.

Well, apparently, Google CEO Eric Schmidt is more than ready. Excerpts from his interview on Fox Business Network:

—“It’s not the first entry for Microsoft (NSDQ: MSFT). They do this about once a year.”

—“We think search is about comprehensiveness, freshness, scale and size for what we do. It’s difficult for them to copy that.”

—“You earn (share). You don’t buy it with ads, you earn it and you earn it customer by customer, search by search, answer by answer.”

Schmidt gave a similar interview to CNN earlier this month, where he pretty much said the same thing about Bing, and mentioned this key point: “They have some advantages with the Windows monopoly, where they can encourage people to use Bing, probably unfairly. Lets see what the users choose.” And also professed his unabashed love for Amazon (NSDQ: AMZN) Kindle, doesn’t say much on a question about YouTube

Source: http://www.paidcontent.org/entry/419-google-ceo-schmidt-rips-bing/

Tags: Google, Bing, Microsoft, Search, Eric Schmidt, Fox Business News, Patrick Pichette, Amazon Kindle, CNN, Global IT News,

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Cisco Joins Dow Jones Industrial Average Today

Cisco Systems today joins the elite circle of 30 blue-chip businesses that make up the Dow Jones industrial average, a move that may make it easier for the San Jose company to attract investors — at least initially.

Plus, in joining Intel and Hewlett-Packard on the list, Cisco is sure to get a boost in prestige. But more than anything, experts say, the decision to replace General Motors with Cisco is recognition that technology is a primary innovator and spark plug of the nation's economy. And that trend is turning heads everywhere from Wall Street to Washington.

"It signals the ascendancy of Silicon Valley and high tech," said Stephen Levy of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. "We're seeing older industries and companies be replaced by a sector that has substantial long-term growth prospects."

Technology already has the attention of President Barack Obama, who is actively promoting such ideas as smarter electricity grids and computerized health records. And now, with Cisco, HP and Intel on the fabled stock index, along with IBM and Microsoft, elected officials may listen even more closely to the needs of Bay Area businesses, said Jim Wunderman, CEO of the Bay Area Council.

"It certainly cements the tech industry in Silicon Valley as an integral part of the American economy," he said. "From a public policy basis, it has some impact. I think it makes a stronger case in Washington and maybe in the state capitals."

Since its debut in 1896, the Dow Jones industrial average has predominately featured so-called smokestack industries, from U.S. Rubber and Bethlehem Steel to Standard Oil and American Smelting. However, reflecting a major shift in the nation's economy, those types of businesses have gradually given ground to firms offering products centered on computers, software and communications technology.

Officials with the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis say it's hard to say how much of the gross domestic product is represented by sales of such technology to consumers and the government. But business purchases alone of such goods represented about 3 percent of the GDP in 2008, compared with less than 1 percent in 1968. And one of the biggest up-and-comers in the tech field is Cisco, which was founded in 1984 and earned $8 billion on sales of nearly $40 billion during its most recent fiscal year.

Since the June 1 announcement that Cisco will replace GM, a part of the index for 83 years, the Internet-networking equipment maker's stock price has risen more than 7 percent, closing Friday at $19.87. That kind of increase is common after companies are first selected for the list, in part because some big institutions invest heavily in firms that are on such indexes, said Sybille Reitz, a Dow Jones spokeswoman.

"It certainly does increase your visibility in the market," she said. "You're included among the bluest of the blue-chip companies in the United States." But the share-price bump frequently is temporary, she said, adding, "at the end of the day, it doesn't mean anything to their business or to their long-term stock price."

Although HP executives declined to discuss how they've been affected by being placed on the list in 1997, Intel, which got on two years later, hasn't seen much of an impact, according to spokesman Chuck Mulloy. "By and large, it's more prestige than anything substantive," he said.

John Roberts, director of Stanford's Center for Global Business and the Economy, also expressed skepticism that being on the index would mean significantly more business for Cisco or Silicon Valley. After all, he said, "very few people can tell you whether a given company is in the DJ30. I certainly cannot."

Still, in a prepared statement, Cisco officials said they are pleased at their inclusion. Noting that today marks "the first time in nearly 10 years that a technology company has been added to the Dow," the company said, "We are honored with this recognition of our continued strong performance."

Tags: Cisco Systems, Cisco, DJIA, Dow Jones Industrial Average, GM, Sybille Reitz, Chuck Mulloy, DJ30, John Roberts, Stanford's Center for Global Business and the Economy, Silicon Valley, Bay Area Council, HP, IBM, Microsoft, Intel,

Source: http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_12530721?source=email

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Windows collapsing under own weight

This recent article from ZDnet discusses a Gartner report purporting the end of the Microsoft Windows operating system.

“Microsoft's Windows juggernaut is collapsing under its own weight, as it tries to support 20 years of applications and becomes more complicated by the minute, according to analyst firm Gartner.”

“Speaking at the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in Las Vegas…, Gartner analysts Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald asked the audience whether Microsoft needed to radically change its approach to Windows; around half of the managers and executives gathered in the room raised their hands. "Windows is too monolithic," said Silver.”

There is no doubt that in the OS world, MS Windows is a dinosaur.

The Gartner analysts raise an interesting point by highlighting the fact that Windows is saddled by 20 years of legacy code and interoperability standards that may no longer be relevant in a world quickly adopting the cloud computing model.

When does Microsoft reach the tipping point, where they benefit more from starting over then they do by maintaining and updating outdated code?

Now that Google is overtly targeting MS Office for extermination by offering free, web-based apps such as Google docs, Microsoft may be faced with the reality of a need for a serious self-reinvention. Perhaps Microsoft should look in the direction of the Salesforce.com “Platform as a Service” model, as their next sortie in the software wars. Or maybe, just maybe, the gang up in Redmond has a little more up its sleeve with the proposed Yahoo purchase, than everybody has thus far imagined.

Stay tuned…

http://news.zdnet.co.uk/software/0,1000000121,39384073,00.htm?r=2