May 3, 2009

Alternative Energy's Fortunes Shift With the Winds


One Man's Effort to Build a Turbine Company Reflects the Ups and Downs of Oil, the Economy and Commitment

Cedar Rapids, Iowa -- James Dehlsen has spent decades trying to build a bigger and better machine to convert a breeze into electricity.

As much as anyone, he helped create the modern wind-power business, riding waves of interest in alternative energy and weathering downturns when that enthusiasm died down. At this point in the cycle, he doesn't exactly have the wind at his back.

"The industry has been impacted pretty heavily," says Mr. Dehlsen, chairman of Clipper Windpower, one of a few U.S. wind-turbine makers. Asked about the demand for turbines, he says: "It's not up."

[Alternative Energy's Fortunes Shift With the Winds]Jeffrey Ball/The Wall Street Journal

Just a few months ago, Clipper Windpower's turbines were in high demand. The company recently laid off workers.

President Barack Obama and politicians of both parties vow a renewable-energy revolution. The ups and downs of Mr. Dehlsen's company show both the promise and the difficulty of that vision. Creating reliable energy from a fuel as fickle as the wind is difficult. Doing so without predictable and prolonged help from Capitol Hill and Wall Street is all but impossible.

Few industries are as hard to change as energy. Fossil fuel, entrenched and convenient, follows a boom-and-bust cycle that keeps interrupting the development and adoption of alternatives. The interest in renewable energy rises with the price of oil and falls with it, too. Phasing in new energy sources on a scale big enough to matter would take consistent effort over decades -- something that, so far, hasn't happened in the biggest oil-consuming country in the world.

Europe has been more consistent. Longstanding subsidies there have incubated renewable-energy companies that now have gone global -- much like higher gasoline taxes have pushed most Europeans away from gas-guzzling cars. In good economic times, the U.S. chose not to match Europe's renewable-energy subsidies. So Europe, which generally isn't as windy as the U.S., emerged early on as a global wind-power leader.

Before the recession hit last fall, renewable energy, such as wind farms, were seeing a boom in jobs, growth and funding. But now financing has dried up and layoffs are occurring. Jeffrey Ball reports from Iowa

Today's recession is whipsawing renewable-energy companies regardless of their nationality. According to New Energy Finance, an industry analyst, new investment in "clean energy" -- sources such as wind, solar and biofuels -- sank 53% globally in the first quarter from the same period last year. Layoffs and production cutbacks are spreading throughout the industry, which just months ago was soaring. In response, the U.S. is moving to boost its subsidies, largely to generate what Mr. Obama calls "green jobs."

That's a big opportunity for Clipper -- if it can get past the recession. In the past few months, Clipper has laid off one-quarter of the workers at its factory in this Rust Belt city, and it has slashed its production of wind turbines by more than half. Like many of its competitors, it's spending huge sums fixing mechanical problems that couldn't have come at a worse time. The industry might have ironed out those glitches had it developed without the fits and starts.

Today's wind turbines weigh more than 300 tons and stand some 300 feet tall. Climbing their internal ladders to the top requires wearing a mountaineer-style safety harness and takes 10 or 15 sweaty minutes. Their three fiberglass blades slice through a circle of airspace covering nearly two acres. The blades turn gears, which run generators, which produce electricity.

When Mr. Dehlsen started his first wind company in 1980, turbines were "made in people's garages," he recalls. At the time, oil prices were surging, and tax breaks for new sources of energy were waiting to be exploited. Mr. Dehlsen's company, Zond Systems, began importing turbines from Vestas, a Danish equipment maker then entering the wind business.

By 1985, the good times had ended. Oil prices sank, Washington withdrew the tax credits, and private financing for wind power dried up.

Mr. Dehlsen spent the next two decades trying to develop turbines that would produce more power at lower cost. In 2000, he sold Zond to Enron, then a highflying energy company. The following year, he founded Clipper and began developing an even bigger turbine. In 2005, he tested it in a howling Wyoming snowstorm.

His timing was good. Once again, oil prices were rising, another U.S. tax break was in place, and investors were pouring money into wind.

Clipper leased an abandoned printing-press factory in Cedar Rapids and retooled it to make turbines. The location was sensible if not sexy. The windiest solid swath of the U.S. is a corridor stretching from Texas to the Dakotas. Iowa sits along it.

The arrival of Clipper and other wind-energy companies was a blessing for Iowa, which had been losing manufacturing jobs. Among those hired was Jeff Pottebaum, who was a maintenance worker at a local hospital before Clipper hired him in 2006 for $15 an hour. "I thought I had the world by the tail," the 41-year-old says.

In 2007, Clipper's first full year of production, cracks developed on the blades of some turbines the company had installed, and the teeth on some turbines' gears began to wear prematurely. In response, Clipper reinforced the blades of all its turbines. It also brought the gearboxes of all its turbines back to the factory to check and, if necessary, repair. Then, last year, more problems emerged with blades and with a few gearboxes. Those prompted additional fixes. Clipper says the problems originated with suppliers.

But the industry can't control the economy. Last fall, the debt markets collapsed, the recession set in, and orders for new turbines screeched to a halt. Clipper halved production, to about four turbines per week. In January, it laid off about 80 workers, including Mr. Pottebaum.

"I was with a company where I thought the sky was the limit," says Mr. Pottebaum, who now has a temporary job in landscaping. He would return to Clipper, he says, "in a heartbeat."

Other wind-turbine makers also have had layoffs -- enough to worry Iowa Gov. Chet Culver. "We've got to help them hold on," he says between meetings at the state capitol. Gov. Culver is glad that several wind-turbine companies -- including those based abroad -- have set up factories in his state. "Long-term, I think this is probably the strongest sector of our economy," he says. "I can't predict today what the future is going to be -- how long these companies are going to have to struggle."

Clipper is seeking a loan guarantee under the Obama administration's economic-stimulus plan. At the Cedar Rapids plant, Clipper's chief executive, Douglas Pertz, invokes national interest as a reason the government should help his firm. As the country assists its automotive icons, he argues, it also should help loosen up funding for its renewable-energy companies. It would be problematic for the country "for Clipper to not survive," he says. Yet the renewable-energy industry is one of many sectors competing for stimulus aid.

Vestas has grown into a global wind-power juggernaut largely because of the reliability of European renewable-energy policy, says Roby Roberts, a Vestas senior vice president. "It takes continuity, predictability and consistency, and that's not what the U.S. has ever had," he says. Vestas now is expanding in the U.S., he says, largely because the U.S. is implementing more supportive policy.

Out behind Clipper's plant, shrink-wrapped in plastic, the finished pieces of wind turbines are piling up as they wait to be picked up by buyers facing financial difficulty themselves.

Write to Jeffrey Ball at jeffrey.ball@wsj.com


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May 18, 2008

A Prototype for Digital Education

In this recent article from the Pulpit, by Bob Cringely, (http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/) Bob discusses Education and Technology in his own inimitable way.

“Every generation disapproves of the one that follows and barely claims to understand the generation that follows that. It's the way we are, simply because we tend to see everything in the context of our own experience -- an experience that is changed by age, the times we grew up in, and yes by technology.”


“I'm from the Baby Boom generation and we, by our sheer numbers, have had an inordinate effect on what it means to be "perfect in every way." But our time is passing quickly just as technology explodes after 50 years of Moore's Law. The result is technology that will shortly be beyond us but not beyond the generations that follow. Our grandchildren will run a world very different from the one we ran and many institutions will simply have to adjust or die.”

Having set a nice foundation, Cringely then gets into the nitty-gritty of his analysis.

“Parents who are today in their 20s -- parents of the kids who go to school with my three sons ages 6, 3 and 1 -- grew up with personal computers, mobile phones and video games. More importantly, THEIR PARENTS did, too.”


“This new generation of parents lives in a digital world and has little patience with analog traditions. Where we (Baby Boomers) think of bricks and books they think of electrons and photons. Where we remember what time the library opens, they wonder why it should ever close. The world will shortly be more theirs than ours and they'll be calling the shots with the result that many aspects of life, including education, will change forever. This is inevitable and can't be halted.”

He’s got a point. Once the Baby Boomers leave the scene, as they are beginning to do, the entire notion of education is likely to change just as much as the notion of work is predicted to change.

“This emerging world will be very different in many ways. How many of these kids expect to someday earn a pension? Surveys show that few of them expect Social Security to even survive until their retirement -- if they can ever retire at all.”


“Where we went through a couple career changes they'll go through half a dozen or more in a life that will outlast ours by 20 years. Growing up is changing from becoming what you will be to becoming what you will be for a while, and that has a huge impact on the educational requirements placed on our society. If you expect to start your career over half a dozen times, how do you prepare for careers 2-6?”

Perhaps the more relevant question here is: Does anyone want to rely on a social security pension? One of the potential bonuses of changing jobs a half-dozen times is that many of those changes are likely to result in a “trading-up” situation, where a new position is accepted because it is more attractive than the previous position. This certainly isn’t the case for all workers, but knowledge workers stand to gain handsomely from the situation.

“It's easy for old farts like me to assume everybody will learn the way we did, but that's unlikely simply because the underlying assumptions are changing.”


“When I was a kid human labor was cheap and technology was expensive. Today technology is cheap and getting cheaper, while human labor is expensive and becoming more so. Yet our model of education technology is still so defined by that remembered Apple IIe in the corner of the classroom that is it difficult for many to imagine truly pervasive educational technology.”


“This is in large part because there is no way that Apple IIe or any PC is going to somehow expand to replace books and teachers and classrooms. For education, the personal computer is probably a dead end. It's not that we won't continue to have and use PCs in schools, but the market and intellectual momentum clearly lie elsewhere.”


“So forget about personal computers: the future of education probably lies with digital games.”

There’s no doubt that technology has yet to be “embraced” with zeal in education circles as it has been in other sectors, such as government and commerce. Perhaps it’s because those who make the decisions about curriculum (ie hold the purse strings) are Baby Boomers (or older), and really don’t understand the total potential of all the educational possibilities born of technology. Let’s not forget that many teachers are in the same boat as the administrators, technology-wise.

Digital games eh… hmm.

“I say "digital games" rather than "video games" or "PC games," or "handheld games," because the platform doesn't matter as much as the application. Whether it is a PC or Mac, xBox or PS3, PSP or Nintendo DS, gaming has done an excellent job of proving that the application is more important than the platform on which it runs.”

He’s right on point here; it’s the software, not the hardware, where the value lies.

“Stories came out this week from the NPD Group announcing that 72 percent of Americans play PC or video games with 58 percent of those played online. Those numbers -- which apparently don't include kids, by the way -- are HUGE and explain all by themselves much of what is happening to traditional mass media like TV, magazines and newspapers.”


“We're spending so much time playing games that we don't have as much time for those older pursuits. Only drive-time radio thrives and that's just because we don't have a practical model for playing games while driving.”


“Digital games are a bigger business than Hollywood movies, than book publishing, than television, than music.”

Wow, that last point is persuasive in its own right, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that there is a correlation to education.

“Clearly the best instructional platform is one that already attracts users to spend countless hours in its mastery. At this point it is a relatively simple matter to bend some games to the will of education and training.”


“I am not saying schools will disappear. I AM saying that new modes of instruction will emerge and they will inevitably involve processing power and context. We took our kids to Washington, D.C. for Spring Break and I would have loved to outfit them with MP3 players loaded with age-appropriate descriptions of what we saw. That's just scratching the surface.”

And this is how it is likely to develop too, one application at a time. You begin with a podcast for museums, and you end up with a revolution in education.

“My vision for future digital education has a key difference from traditional 20th century education. A fundamental aspect of education has always been that it comes to abrupt and quite specific endpoints associated with various cultural rites of passage. We graduate. There is a first day of school and a last day of school. At some highly specific and anticipated moment we disconnect from the education mother ship and go off on our own, often never to return.”


“Why?”


“Well to make room in school for someone else, of course.”


“Why?”


“In my future model the "school" is only a PC/game machine/mobile phone/headset thingee that clues me in about everything around me and helps me learn what I need to know. Why would I ever give that up?”


“The truth is we won't. If we have more students, we just build more devices. Classrooms aren't absolutely necessary, nor will location even matter.”

Pervasive life-long learning, ubiquitous connectivity, commodity electronic devices, are we back in 1998? Certainly, ten years later, all of this is much more tangible, and indeed possible, whereas in 1998, it was still only a twinkle in Web 1.0’s eye.

It’s a good bet that 10 years hence, education will have evolved toward his analysis, and it will probably also be true that his vision will not be completely manifested due to itinerant, pervasive and unavoidable human factors that are not solved by computing power, and software alone.

http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2008/pulpit_20080404_004650.html

May 1, 2008

The Open source 'Brotherhood'

In this recent article from Silicon.com, Martin Brampton discusses the open source software and the reality of the people who comprise the open source software community.

“We all know IT is inclined to favour the young. But people working on open source projects are much more dramatically grouped than IT as a whole. Studies over the past few years have shown that three-quarters of the participants were less than 30 years old. A clear majority were single and most had no children. But the most extreme characteristic was that almost all open source developers are male. In short, open source software is largely written by young men with no family ties.”



Finally, the truth is out.

Now that the pleasantries are out of the way, we can get down to business...

“Open source projects can be split into at least three different business models. One is based on making software freely and openly available because it will enable the sale of related services - a model used by IBM and many others on numerous occasions.”

“Another is where commercial organisations see a need for software to exist but do not seek direct financial benefit from it. A prime example of this is Google's support for the development of the Firefox browser.”

“The third model is the host of projects that are wholly reliant on volunteers. Generally, only the largest of these achieve any significant income, and many do not seek any.”

Paradoxically, Brampton continues by stating that open source actually prohibits cooperation.

“The whole thrust of the open software movement was originally based on an attempt to sustain the culture that existed in earlier days, when algorithms were freely published and code swapped between developers.

“Despite this background, which should be reinforced by the legal situation that entitles anyone to use parts of an open source work for non-commercial purposes, projects seem extremely reluctant to utilise the work of other groups, or to agree common standards”

"Unfortunately, this lack of co-operation, endemic in the general run of open source projects, is one of the factors that leads to inefficiency and waste. At the best of times, most projects fail, maybe in the region of 95 per cent. One reason for this is there are too many projects and too few volunteer developers. A more co-operative approach would utilise the available effort more effectively.”



Certainly Brampton provides an interesting analysis here, but with the last paragraph above, we can detect that he is an outsider looking in to the open source community. Perhaps the open source community (ie those actually creating the code) is actually very happy with its level of efficiency. Indeed, it is probably misguided to even apply the corporate laurel of efficiency to a community not organized for such purposes. Maybe the open source community gathers primarily for creative reasons using software coding as a social conduit for interaction and expression?

http://software.silicon.com/applications/0,39024653,39182126,00.htm?r=1